The recent Presidential elections in Iran, the world’s second largest oil producer, resulted in a victory for the Mayor of the capital city Teheran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
With 62% of the vote in the second round of the elections Ahmadinejad easily defeated ex-President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjami.
After being declared the winner Ahmadinejad said he was keen “to build an exemplary, developed and powerful Islamic society”.
At the same time Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei described Ahmadinejad’s win as “profound humiliation” for the United States; which cut diplomatic ties with Iran in 1979 after its embassy was besieged for over a year and 52 employees were held hostage. Anti-American rhetoric had formed part of the backdrop to the Presidential elections that saw Ahmadinejad elected.
Former two-term president, Rafsanjani, had been expected by most political commentators to win. He did, in fact, gain the largest minority of votes with 21% in the first ballot. However Ahmadinejad subsequently took the vast majority of the other five candidates votes who failed to make it to the second ballot to win easily.
Rafsanjani, a vastly wealthy man, had been seen by most western leaders as the more likely to be accommodating to western powers interests, promising to open up Iran’s economy to the multinationals.
During the election, Ahmadinejad attempted to mobilize support amongst some of the poorest sections of the electorate, in a country where 30% are unemployed and poverty and squalor is on the increase, by promising to “cut the hands off the mafias of powers and factions who have a grasp on our oil, I stake my life on this. People must see their share of oil money in their daily lives”.
This strategy my prove to be a dangerous game in raising people’s expectations as Ahmadinejad is an integral member of the Khomeni-Khamenei religious establishment that has ruled Iran since 1979 and which has failed to raise the standard of living amongst many Iranians and in some cases reduced them.
Shortly after the election result Red-Star-Research/RPM publications was able to interview two members of the Iranian community living in Britain and we re-produce their thoughts below. Both those interviewed wish to remain anonymous.
1. What role does the president play in Iran?
According to the Iranian constitution, the supreme leader, who is Ayatollah Khamenei at this current time, is the most powerful figure and he dominates both Iranian foreign and internal policy. The supreme leader is not elected by people, but is nominated by the Guardian Council. The Guardian Council is nominated by the supreme leader. Although the President is responsible for Iranian policy he only carries out the direction that the supreme leader dictates. Iranian Presidents are also controlled by the Islamic parliament and therefore he is unable to make decisions and carry them out independently.
2. Will the election of Ahmadinejad bring any major changes within the current Iranian regime?
Many Iranian political analysts are of the opinion that by electing Ahmadinejad, the Government has been unified and if there is any major change, it will be the hard line faction which controls both international and internal policy.
3. Why do you think that Ahmadinejad was able to win, most commentators had described him as the outsider in the election?
He was supreme leader’s first choice and he enjoyed both the Basij [the security services] and the Revolutionary Guards support, which are the most powerful forces in Iran. They can do whatever they wish providing it does not conflict with the religious hierarchies wishes.
4. Ahmadinejad is known to have considerable support amongst the religious police, the Basij – will this have an effect on the role of women in Iran?
From Ahmadinejad’s early announcements it seems the hard liners policy will be dominant in Iranian internal affairs and women will be among the most vulnerable groups that will suffer from this.
5. Why were 1,000 candidates refused permission to stand in the election?
It was the Guardian Council’s decision to approve only those who were considered safe to control the Islamic constitution and Islamic regime. Of the 1000 candidates only 7 people were considered safe enough.
6. Is it still dangerous to campaign against the actions of the government and what happens to those that do?
Any action against the government has been responded forcefully since the 1970’s Iranian revolution; from the mass killings in Kurdistan to the killing of opposition prisoners in 1989 and also the terrorising of journalists inside Iran continuing with the terror of the Kurdish opposition in Miconous in Berlin and Vienna. All were savagely attacked and people murdered. The slight exception was during Khatami’s era when imprisonment was the alternative. Now with Ahmadinejad, any opposition activity or protest will be harshly dealt with.
Over recent months there have been a number of actions taken by workers including hunger strikes. What lies behind these actions and do you expect them to increase? Is life improving for the mass of Iranians? How might the regime react if the workers actions do increase?
Despite recent increases in the price of oil, the state of the economy in Iran is volatile. Very few factories run to their maximum potential. The official rate of inflation is more than 20%. The rate of unemployment is quite high. The only to way to protest has been peaceful hunger strike’s which until now have been tolerated. When Ahamadinnejad takes office there will be no tolerance toward any protest, demonstration and hunger strikes. The students, factory workers and intellectuals will suffer the most.
What effect is the continuing occupation of Iraq by the USA and Britain having in Iran and on politics there?
The Iranian government has a very good relationship with the Shia majority in Iraq and it has vast interests in both politics and the economy of Iraq. The continuing occupation of Iraq by US and Allies forces cannot be acceptable to the Iranian authorities. Iranians regard such occupation as a direct threat to their interests.
With over 60% of the people voting in the election does this indicate that most people are generally happy with the situation in Iran?
No, a huge fraud during the election has been documented and even protested to by the other candidate’s including Rafsanjani, Karoubi and Moin. However as long as the Supreme Leader has approved this election, no action will be taken to investigate such a fraud. Therefore, any figures published by the Guardian Council and Government are unreliable and cannot be trusted.
10. Do you expect the Iranian leadership to stand up to the Americans and continue to develop their nuclear programme? Is anti-American rhetoric being used to deflect attention from economic and political problems in Iran?
The current policy will continue and basically anti American sentiment adopted by the government is partially to deflect from the failure to tackle economic and political problems and to suppress any anti government activities.
11. And finally, are you confident that things are going to get better in Iran over the next 5-10 years?
We hope that the current regime will not stay in power for another 10 years.
Thank you for answering these questions – August 7th 2005.